ROTW (1238 Views)
Posted by:
derby1592 (IP Logged)
Date: September 07, 2002 02:30AM
The ROTW looks very playable. Cat's at Home appears to be a solid play and likely to outrun all but Lido Palace. Those two look like a good exacta box. Unfortunately, the small field and lack of competition may eliminate any value unless Express Tour gets overbet.
Cat's at Home’s recent grouping as a 5yo is much stronger than any previous grouping even though he has not yet gotten back to his top. Everything now seems to be pointing back to that top including a switch to the red-hot Prado and that fact that the Henning barn is also hot. Add to that his affinity for the distance (5/10 lifetime) and he looks very strong.
Here is the computer sheets model odds-line for the race (the main input data are TG figs). The odds shown represent the "break even" odds for each horse given its estimated chances of winning.
Lido Palace, Even Money
Express Tour, 49/1
Cat's At Home, 2/1
Sherpa Guide, 16/1
Gander, 36/1
Baseball Champion, 17/1
Here are the Model's break even payoffs on the Lido Palace / Cat's At Home exacta.
LP over CAH - $8
CAH over LP - $17
Good luck.
Chris
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