Last week my view was that it wasn't all that hard, for me at least, to bet against an odds on Mdn in a stakes race, even if she was trained by the great Bob Baffert. This week my opinion is that LP is not only hard to bet against, he is impossible to bet against. For what it's worth, I think LP's dope makes his chances of winning the race 84%, or 1-5. One reason for the post is to question whether an exacta "box" makes sense in such circumstances, even assuming you buy into CAH. Wouldn't it make more sense to either go with a cold E or to weight the bet 90% LP over CAH & 10% CAH over LP?

More importantly, I question whether the pace scenario for CAH is going to be as favorable today as it was in his last three from inside posts at inside speed favoring Mon. If you think chasing a small exacta is the way to go, BC has more upside, the right running style, his last can be seen as a non-effort at the wrong distance, & this is exactly the kind of race where PDay concedes the win to LP & picks up the pieces at the end.