123 Wrote:
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> Panty Raid the slowest horse in the race and she
> still wins.She was the reason I played the race.
> Results like this just defy belief. Put me out of
> everything.


Dear 123,

I share your frustration. I took it in the shorts badly in this race -- thinking that Panty Raid was the easiest throw out and a great bet against.

For what it is worth, here is how I consoled myself.

First, it is important to remember that this is always a game of percentages and things that defy belief do happen. If you were to bet the race 100 times, you had to figure Panty Raid would win it at least several times. Unfortunately, the running of the Spinster that occurred in our shared universe was one of those several times.

Second, when you look at Panty Raid, while she was slowest going in, she had also been at the level she was at for her entire career, and, at some point, a 3 year old (especially one winning graded stakes) is supposed to improve. I recognize that, even with some improvement, she was still behind most of the fillies and mares in this race, but my point is that, if she had been 30-1, a case could have been made for including her (and a horse that is bettable at 30-1 should win a few times out of a 100).

Third, when you are looking at 3 year olds that are due for some improvement at some point, not only is it difficult to determine when the improvement will come, but also how much the improvement will be. In my view, she would have needed to jump up more than the 'normal' amount one would have expected to come in. Again, this is rare, but it does happen. We see sheets all the time where a horse runs a top that is out of proportion to the prior line.

Finally, the whole thing is a matter of percentages and value. The race presented a good opportunity because a lot of people were willing to wager a lot of money on a horse that we felt had a low chance of coming in. If she had been 20-1 or 30-1, then the opportunity we had perceived would not have been there. Having said all that, false favorites do win sometimes. If I am betting against and even money shot because I think the horse should be 4-1 instead, I am tacitly acknowledging that the horse is going to beat me 20% of the time. Sometimes, that happens. I try to tell myself that it is those outlying possibilities coming in that cause people to overbet horses, so I should be happy that it happened as it will pave the way more opportunities in the future.

Having said all that, I am still shocked by the outcome and my bank account is smarting too. I really thought the Spinster was a great betting race and I got annihilated, so I share your anger.