The "alleged" genius in question is derby1592, who I am glad decided not to take me up on my Cards/Giants offer. I still think the Giants have some huge holes as a team & despite last night that the Cards have a shot. I've never used "alleged" re his handicapping & now think that it was used improperly re his baseball analysis.

My pt re the "crowd" is that with few exceptions(TC,BC, weekends at Sar,etc), we & people like us are the "crowd." The implication in David's remarks, which is repeated over & over in handicapping books, is that there is some never defined group of casual fans who don't really understand the game very well & have never heard of or don't know how to apply concepts like the bounce theory. I wish it were so, but the reality was confirmed in an exhaustive NTRA which establishes that nearly all of the handle is generated by the same group, which they defined as hardcore fans. Given the close relationship between horses' odds & no. of wins, as well as Steve Klein's study proving that lower class favs win at a higher % rate than any other group, it's my opinion that the crowd David thinks is overbetting certain types of horses does not exist. With respect to the bounce theory, moreover, even the casual fan is bombarded with discussions in drf, by track commentators,etc. As I see it, this theory has been part of mainstream handicapping for many yrs & it's more likely that one would gain an edge with an anti-bounce theory than the opposite.