Mall,

I would agree that you can go 'bounce crazy' and there are plenty of times that the anticipated bounce does not materialize.

However, even if you are right and the horse doesn't bounce, doesn't the previous big effort kill your price? I remember having this debate with Chuckles (not to put you on the same level). He kept saying Lemon Drop Kid would keep running holes in the wind after three negative numbers. Even if he was right (and he wasn't), Lemon Drop Kid was too short a price and too inviting a target as a 'bet against'. If he doesn't bounce you get your $4.00. If the bounce doesn't materialize and you get 6-1 that's a different story. Maybe you hit a lot of cold exactas with those 2-1 shots on top. There are lots of variables.

What are your results? If you tell me how to get prices on this 'anti-bounce' thing I'd love to hear it. In the meantime, I think David is right and I still see the public overbetting the last race often enough to make some hay, your points notwithstanding. Maybe it would be better to try to precisely determine where the bounce is more likely than not. Of course, there will always be exceptions and arguments. Some specifics would be great, and I won't rip you for not posting them ahead of time if you want to cite past history. HP