Jim,

If you ignored (or did not hear) the rumors about Orientate and downplayed the layoff and lack of works (both unusual for Lukas) and the history of the trainer, and assumed that Orientate was 100 percent healthy, then he was clearly the most likely winner.

Since switching to dirt sprints, he had been consistently faster than any sprinter ever and he had demonstrated the ability to handle the expected hot pace and still run his number. The other front-runners in the race had either shown they could not handle the expected pace or had never seen such a pace. Xtra Heat, Bonapaw and several others had shown they could not handle the expected pace. Carson Hollow and Thunderello were wild cards since they had never seen the expected pace and they both were still developing.

Xtra Heat and Bonapaw both failed to fire under the pace pressure (although Bonapaw had a rough start), Carson Hollow folded and Thunderello showed he has a big upside (I am hoping that they freeze some blood samples).

Still, given the 3 big recent efforts and the layoff (normally good for BC sprinters but unusual for Lukas) and the lack of works after his most recent race along with all the rumors and the fact that he was the likely favorite, you could also build a strong case that Orientate was not healthy and a toss.

As I said before the race in discussions with others, it would not have surprised me to have seen Orientate win the race or to have seen him break down or to have seen him win the race and then break down.

Chris