Breaking through tops (1628 Views)
Posted by:
Mart Koivastik (IP Logged)
Date: January 15, 2003 11:39PM
Mr. Brown:
Since it is the time of year when we will see 3-year-olds break through their 2-year-old tops, I would be interested to know what you consider the ideal pattern(s) for such horses in terms of a next-out bet.
If a horse with a good overall line makes a small move to surpass his 2-year-old top of, say, 12, and then returns to race after about a month off, how many points of improvement would you project?
In the cases of horses that break through their 2-year-old tops in their first or 2nd starts at 3, then go backward, what do you consider acceptable and unacceptable patterns for the intervening race? Using the above example, what if the horse with a 2-year-old top of 12 runs an 11 1/2, comes back on reasonable rest, then goes backward? Does it make a big difference to you if the intervening race is a 13 or 17 in terms of betting the horse the next time?
I would greatly appreciate your sharing any concepts that apply to these situations that we will be seeing in the upcoming months. Finally, I'm sure you have a lot on your plate, but is there any chance of either a book or an extremely detailed, example-filled workbook/user's manual on Thoro-Graph patterns and concepts? (Your introductory materials are nicely done, but I'm getting greedy . . . and it would be helpful to see an advanced version of some of the theories.)
Thanks for your time and high-quality product.