Going from an earlier string, if you attack a race by asking "what do I like about this race?", I use the trainer profiles by asking "what does this guy do well?"

The limits that Friedman alluded to in his post are obvious. Trainer angles are not a factor in every race. You have to use your judgement in weighing sample size, and the stats may not be as specific to a situation as you would like. However, there are situations where you can't help noticing that a 15-1 borderline contender is second-off-a-layoff for a very strong second-off-a-layoff trainer.

I look for areas where the win/ITM% and ROI substantially exceeds the trainer's overall win/ITM% and ROI. I'm not looking for a $0.20 increase in a category on overall ROI; I'm looking for categories that are at least $1.00 over.

One comment on sample size. If the sample category includes 50 starts, and overall the stats are for 500+ starts, that's a small sample. If the guy has 12 wins in that category, and his overall win% is 10%, that small sample indicates a strong category for that trainer in my book. The situation may not arise every day, but when it comes up, the guy really hammers it. If the price is right and the horse has a chance with a forward move, I'm not going to say "that sample's too small", I'll take a swing on the chance he's going to hammer it again.

On the other hand you also have to be careful in giving a trainer too much credit for being a LITTLE bit stronger in a category. Sometimes the price is right and this will lead you to talk yourself into something that isn't there. Trainer stats always work better if applied to horses that have a realistic chance on the figs; I don't use them to bet a horse that needs a 10 point jump. HP