Re: Congratulations to Steve Wolfson, Trainer Profiles (859 Views)
Posted by:
mike holbert (IP Logged)
Date: January 24, 2003 10:12PM
couple comments:
1. Trainer A has 111 starts this past year and is winning at a 16% rate. For turf races over the last several years, she has 76 starts with a 8% win rate. Obvious right?
Surprise! This is NOT a statistically significant difference at a 90% confidence level. [difference in proportions test]
2. You can increase the value of trainer trends by keeping a notation of significant trends with the past performance. As an somewhat obvious example: We have two second time starters that both ran the same effort last out (however you measure effort.) One trained by Zito. One trained by Pletcher. Let's say they have similar 2nd out statistics. It might be beneficial to know that Zito is 4% 1st out and Pletcher is 22% first out. That is something don't get with Bris, Drf, or Rags.
3. ROI, as it relates to trainer stats, is worthless.