Re: First Pass at an Odds Line (634 Views)
Posted by:
jimbo66 (IP Logged)
Date: April 14, 2009 07:08PM
Dana,
You have to do the math on the takeout. It really is pretty impossible that somebody in this field will be 9-5 or 2-1. The favorite, who will be one of I Want Revenge, Quality Road, or Dunkirk, will be no shorter than 7-2, you can book that.
Similarly, Pioneer of the Nile will be no better than the 4th choice, and likely the fifth choice. The fourth or fifth choice in a 20 horse field, won't be 5-1.
As for Mr. Hot Stuff, I am not up to date on him. I plugged the math on the last 3 slots and it worked out to 70-1, but the margin of erron on an odds line this early, especially on the longshots, is pretty steep. But if you were hoping for 15 or 20 to 1, I can guarantee you get that. Mr. Hot Stuff won't be less than 30-1, you can book that too.
