Re: Another Sub-6 Fig 2yo bites the Derby trail dust (1385 Views)
Posted by:
HP (IP Logged)
Date: April 09, 2002 09:23AM
I agree with your points on 2yos.
As for what you're looking for in your Derby picks, I see what you're saying, but things have changed. Monarchos, Fusaichi, Charismatic and Grindstone do not fit the traditional profile. Each of these horses (4 in 6 years) exhibits characteristics that contradict one or more of the elements of the profile formed from earlier Derby winners. Fusaichi didn't run at 2. Monarchos didn't show enough at 2 and had a big jump (about 10 points if I recall correctly) that looked like it might hurt him. Ditto on Charismatic, except his spacing was even worse. Grindstone looked light coming in.
Given the prices on Monarchos and Charismatic, (Grindstone would have been longer without Editor's Note as his entrymate) any horse that's fast enough to win is a risk to throw out based on not conforming to this 'profile'. It's not getting easier. HP