HP,

Just a point of clarification:

As 2yos, Grindstone ran an 11.5 relatively early in the year, Pegasus ran a 6.5 relatively late in the year, Charismatic an 11.75 and Monarchos several 15s. The guidelines are between 6 and 12 as 2yos. All but Monarchos fit nicely. He jumped up early in his 3yo year and ran several fast races in a row before falling apart after the Derby.

Of course, I use this only as a guideline and certainly take into account the odds and how fast the horse is relative to the field. This particular guideline is really much more useful for the future book since it can steer you away from suspect horses that are likely to be the early favorites (e.g., Siphonic and Repent). Once the 3yo lines are established, the value of this guideline is greatly diminished although the stress of rapid, early 2yo development on the fast 2yos and the stress of rapid "catch up" 3yo development on the slow 2yos could still have a residual effect that may show up in the Derby (which is probably the most stressful race in which these horses will ever compete). So I would not ignore it. I would lean toward a horse that showed some development at 2 (but not too much) and continued to develop nicely at 3.

Just one piece of the Derby handicapping puzzle for a race that looks pretty wide open to me at this point.

Chris