I will see if I can stir up a little racing discussion on the ROTW.

Spensive is an interesting horse. Going strictly by his sheet he looks like a great play against. He ran an ugly top 2 races back followed by a regression 2 pts and change above that top. He also bore in in that last race. All this would seem to point to an X this time out. Add to that the he consistently loses ground and he is stuck outside and he is the 2-1 favorite and he looks like a terrific bet against in this race.

But before you rush to the windows to empty your wallet you might also want to consider the following about Spensive.

- He is a 3yo running in a Derby prep that is trained by Bob Baffert. Enough said.

- He has been training like an absolute monster. Baffert works all his horses fast but Spensive has been blowing them all away in the morning including Toro Rojo who is a blazing fast, head-strong sprinter (he outworked him one morning by almost a full second) and all the other 3yos in Baffert's barn such as Kafwain, During, Domestic Dispute and Appalachian Thunder. And keep in mind that this horse is not a one-dimensional speed-ball. In fact, he is quite the opposite. If he is hurting or not healthy, it is definitely not affecting his morning workouts.

- He did lug in during his last race but it was just as they were straightening out of the final turn and it looked more like a clumsy 3yo that still had a lot to learn than a horse that was losing his action because of fatique or soreness.

- He is an impressive physical specimen. I was very impressed seeing him for the first time before the San Rafael. He is a big strapping dappled gray and was on his toes and very alert before that race. If you get a chance to, check him out before the Win Star.

- His stablemate, Appalachian Thunder is very likely to carve out some fast fractions, which should help set the race up for Spensive's off the pace running style.

Now, taking into account all the pluses and minuses I still have to conclude that Spensive is a good bet against in the Winstar. But, if he runs a good race (something near his top), and he certainly might, and Baffert takes him to Kentucky, he looks like the kind of horse that might get up for a piece of the purse at a price on Derby day.

Back to the ROTW. I pretty much agree with the TG analysis although I think I like Mr. Decatur a little more than TG. He has a very solid line if you ignore the one bad race and he gets a good post Asmussen expects to win any time he ships to Sunland (although he usually does not have to face a pair of Baffert horses).