Kudos to Thorograph on the pick of this horse (especially marking it the strong B+). At the odds he went off, he was definitely a value play worth betting since you only had to go back the his second last race to find the best number of anybody. However, looking at the sheets, it was a pretty competitive race. I have two questions. One, why were the threshold odds 9-2? I would not have considered the horse a good bet at 5-1. At 10-1 he was a solid bet. At 20-1, he was a super bet. I am just curious where the 9-2 came from as opposed to 8-1 or something like that. Two, it seemed like the analyst thought it was very likely the horse would come right back to the good number. Why is that? The horse only had to be at its normal level to be competitive, but coming back to the low number it would dominate. However, I would think that the chances of coming right back to that number were low at best and counter-balanced by the risk the number was a knock out number and the horse might not even come back to its normal level. All that being said, it was a great pick by your picker.