Thanks for the email. Sorry for the late reply.
Concerning odds: It's almost impossible
a day or two in advance to figure actual track odds precisely. As a rule of thumb
I try to determine how many legitimate contenders are in the race and adjust the odds accordingly. For example, a race
with 3 contenders would make a fair bet 2-1
on each; 5-2 represents an overlay, so demanding the play be made at 5-2 or more creates a built-in overlay. Admittedly this
isn't a nuanced method but, with the time
constraints involved in doing the analyses,
it does provide a guideline when working from track odds.
Regarding CC's line: My expectation was that CC would move forward off the bounce,
not necessarily that it would return to its
top. In general, that's been a productive
pattern in the past - new top/bounce/forward
off bounce - in 4/5 year olds.
Thanks for the questions.



TGnick