On paper Empire Maker looks like the best horse. However, the Kentucky Derby is notorious for being won by something other than the best horse for any number of reasons.

Racing luck costs many superior horses a better finish in the Derby due to field size alone. Another factor is the tendency of the CD track maint. crew to mess with the surface on big race days...I know that this is the subject of ongoing debate but I also know that Point Given's connections believe that a dramatic change in the racing surface on raceday probably cost him the Triple Crown.

Maybe it did, maybe it didn't but to the handicapper it is something to be taken into consideration.

Picking the winner is not necessarily a requirement for making money betting the Derby. The idea is to isolate the value propositions among the parimutuel pools and then to gamble correctly. That is why this race and the Breeders Cup offer so much opportunity.

Next Saturday every track, OTB and racebook in America will be full of people who don't know the first thing about horse racing or handicapping...They don't even know what the Thorograph Sheets are! And fortunatley for the serious players among us they will be betting with both hands!

Even if EM romps there will likely be high three and possibly even four figure payoffs in various exotic pools...In addition, there are several horses who are simply to slow to be seriously considered contenders to hit the board...I hope they all run!

In last years affair, I didn't even bother to try and pick the winner. I simply boxed six (yes six) horses in the exacta. None of them were less than 7-1. When it came back a Baffert-Lukas cold box, I was asking myself why I had felt like I needed to include the other four?