How strong was Funny Cide's line heading into the Preakness?

That is a question that came up in some pre-Preakness discussions that I had with a few others who often post on this board. I had pointed out that I thought Funny Cide had a very strong forging line after seeing his Derby figure. He had never gone back and still had only improved a few points over his 2yo top. A line that I thought could very well lead to a new top in the Preakness and a line that I thought was almost ideal for a horse taking a serious run at the Triple Crown.

I was justifiably challenged on this with the main concern being that the short rest between the Derby and Preakness would make it difficult to run a new top after a big Derby effort. I had to admit that was a very valid reason to question my original assertion so I tried to dig up as much relevant information on the topic as I could.

Looking back through old TG sheets, I found 7 Preakness entrants that had run new tops in their final Derby prep and then paired them up in the Derby itself. Five of the 7 improved in the Preakness (average of about 2 pts with a range of 0.5 to 3.5) and 2 paired their tops in the Preakness. None regressed. Also, 4 of the 7 actually won the Preakness (several at generous odds) and the other 3 finished second. Based on this (even given the small sample) and the general overall line I still had to conclude that Funny Cide had a very strong pattern and that he was very likely to pair-up or move forward in the Preakness.

In this case (unfortunately, it does not always happen that way), this conclusion was reinforced by Funny Cide's big win.

So in future years keep your eye out for this "Golden Preakness Pattern" - A new top in the final Derby prep followed by a pair-up in the Derby itself.

Below is the detailed list of Preakness horses that showed this pattern and how they ran relative to their tops in the Preakness itself.

Cheers

Chris

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New top in Final Derby Prep followed by pair-up in Derby – how they did in the Preakness:

Charismatic improved by 1.5
Menifee another pair-up
Real Quiet improved by 2
Free House improved by 0.5
Timber Country improved by 2
Tabasco Cat improved by 3.5
Go For Gin another pair-up



Post Edited (05-20-03 18:14)