(The following from David is based on Ragozin numbers, not TG-- JB)

If you were to make assessments of horses based on their likely next number instead of their fastest prior number -- which you should always always do -- then TMW was a logical third pick in the race.

In terms of numbers overall, TMW was faster than Scrimshaw but for Scrimshaw's freakish 6f effort last year. And his last race was only 1 point slower than Dynever's Avventura fig. His Derby number was 3 points faster than Dynever's last race.

In terms of pattern, he certainly looked more likely to go forward than Dynever and also more likely to run faster than Scrimshaw, given that he was already nearly 2 points faster and had more time going into the race.

Len wasn't the only one who thought TMW was the third most likely winner in the race. The analysis I posted -- which went up before Friedman's post -- had TMW as third choice -- based on both past numbers and pattern.

I did not hit the race, because I saw no value and chose not to bet the race (except for a sentimental win bet on FC), so I have nothing to crow about, but let's not slice the bologna so thin, please.