Your overall thinking on the race was similar to mine - too many contenders in there to make it playable in a Pick 4. I think the two you picked, Tap The Admiral and Tam's Terms, did have the best prior TURF tops in the race. The best top was actually Rock Slide but his was on dirt. I understand your rationale: You wanted to limit the play to a couple of horses and went with the two that had the best prior tops on grass because the odds were double digit on both. I disliked Tap The Admiral because I thought he was regressing from his top and I liked Rock Slide because I thought he was just as good on grass as dirt and seemed to be moving back toward his top. I went with 3 and 11 while you went with 4 and 6. Neither of us won, but at least one of yours hit the board. I guess the pattern on tap The Admiral wasn't as weak as I judged it to be. Now that I know WHY you played it the way you did, could you critique my read on the Tap The Admiral pattern? Here's how I saw it: As a 3 year old he had 14 races, the last 3 of those were on grass and he reach the 7+ level in each. Then as a 4 year old, he had 8 races, all on grass, most of them in the 7 range, but in the last 2 races he got down to the 6 level in each. Then as a 5 year old, he improved right out of the box with a 4+, then he slipped back a little to a 5+, then jumped way up to a new top at 0+. In his next start (the one prior to yesterday) he slipped back again to a 4. So my entire analysis of his line was that he was the fastest or second fastest in the race with his top, but the pattern looked weak to me. How did you read the pattern? Obviously you didn't read it as weak enough for you to forgo a bet at 15-1 odds. And that conclusion appears to be correct, since he made a race of it. When a horse has developed this type of pattern: steady year to year improvement, hits a new big top, bounces 3+ points in his next, and then is coming back approximately 6 weeks from the top, is this a situation where you normally expect the horse to recover back toward the top or to continue to regress?