Re: B.C. Post-Mortem (587 Views)
Posted by:
TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: October 30, 2003 12:33PM
Heat Haze-- Interesting you mention this one. Before the Flower Bowl Alan and I debated (and bet a cup of coffee) on whether she would save ground on the first turn. When she dropped back to last we both though she had got to the rail also, and stopped watching, and assumed he had won the bet. So when I was looking at the pre-entries to do the seminar I noticed the same thing you did, and told Litfin to go back and recheck. He did, and he was right the first time-- she was 2.5 around the turn, which is rounded off because of space constraints when we print the product. If you sign up with racereplays.com you can watch the race yourself (9/27 8th Bel, I just checked again), and you will see she caught up with another filly by the time they got to the turn, and raced outside her. You won't be able to see that the other filly is off the rail unless you look at a head-on shot.
What changed after GP is that the horses had to be on the grounds 24 hours out. Again, I have to be circumspect about my comments, but the test is not whether horses win, but what figures they run. From what I heard California has been all over Frankel all year long (more at some locations than others), and the only horse I can think of who ran a big # there was MDO, who did it again Sat. There may be others, but I can't think of them.
Re "sniping"-- this is the only forum I have to deal with the manure the Ragozin operation spreads about me and my figures daily, coast to coast. It is also my chance to point out the theoretical and practical differences in the product, especially when I have a group of horses that everyone in the game is focusing on, which happens twice a year. It doesn't seem to be a bad idea from a business point of view-- on-line sales on BC day were up about 70% from last year, and 588 purchased stuff as opposed to 375 last year. We'll see what they thought of the product and seminar by how many stick around.
On PP-- I bet him at 55-1 for the reasons I mentioned in an earlier post, meaning I thought he was an overlay at that price. I didn't push him harder in the comments because I didn't think he was that likely to win (I sent it in on Congaree, and would again at the price), and did not think he would jump that much-- I thought his best shot was if the race collapsed.
Michael D-- see if you can get Friedman to post the sheets for the first race of the day, the non-BC sprint stake, or at least the numbers those fillies ran. It would help the discussion.
TGJB