Colorado Capper (621 Views)
Date: November 04, 2003 07:22PM
>>I have until the end of the year to make a decision as I have a January 14th tentative start date for my first full year of full time thoroughbred investing. That's why I am trying to soak up as much as possible from you guys here on this board, so that I can learn as much as possible.<<
Can I make a suggestion?
I see no reason you can't use multiple sources of speed figures. That's what I do. I use 3.
As long as you are familiar with the various methodologies for arriving at the figures (and you've already stressed that you are) there are things to be learned by comparing.
When reasonably competent figure makers disagree by a significant amount for a specific race, it can sometimes be a clue about race conditions (pace, change in weather, surface moisture, wind) that impacted the time and/or the ease of making figures on that specific day.
Since the tote board is impacted to some degree by all the popular figure makers, huge discrepancies in the figures can lead to value on the board because various users will come to different conclusions based on whatever figures they are using. IMO there is value in knowing if a figure is solid or suspect and even more value in knowing who actually is right.
I use TG (IMO the best), Beyer (free), and Logic Dictates for NY races only (cheap). I adjust them for the various methodologies (Beyer and Logic are the same scale) and when I see suspect races I dig really deep into the race and try to determine beforehand who has it right. I then also track how horses run when they come out of those suspect races for further insight about who had it right so I can use that info in the future. Something to consider.
Good Luck!
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