Re: Tapit (510 Views)
Date: November 28, 2003 06:20AM
I like the fact that Tapit is already running successfully in routes.
I find that trainers (and horses) often tip their hand about distance abilities by the type of races they debut in, their running style in them, and when in the season they actually debut.
When I see a 2YO wiring 5F races in May, I am immediately suspect about its chances to stretch out for the classics regardless of the pedigree. If the pedigree is suspect, then forget about it.
On the flip side, if he debuts in late summer or early fall at 7F or longer and wins from off the pace, I view that as a more positive sign.
I like to use clues like these "in combination with pedigree".
I also like to examine the horse's performance figures as they stretch out for signs of improvement or lack thereof.
IMO the very best trainers have some insight into their horse's stamina etc... and spot them accordingly. I also find that it is a very rare and special horse that can wire 5F in May and then win at 10F the following May.
I'm not a pedigree expert, but if Tapit's pedigree is slightly suspect for long distances, the evidence so far counters that based on my personal views. If I had to guess right now, I would say tapit will get 10F in May. Now he just has to be good enough.
Post Edited (11-28-03 09:19)
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