Class,

I tend to agree with you about late year route racing showing more Derby potential than early year 2 year old sprints. Additionally, I never said pedigree alone was my yardstick for determining a Derby winner. I've tried to be somewhat reserved about Tapit. The reason is almost every Laurel Futurity I can recall was run in 1:44 or slower. (Caveat: as the race has fallen a bit from significance I haven't stayed on top of it) T-Graph has a number for the race. I think it's a fairly fast number. I am already so impressed with Tapit that I'm about ready to concede that he will be a good miler in the mold of Rubiano.

However, Tapit is not the first precocious 2 year old to run 8.5 marks like a good thing in November or December. Though he may be one of the more lightly raced to do so. Theres been plenty of others. Recently, I'd point to Afternoon Delites, Favorite Trick and a Pletcher trained 2 year old by Southern Halo whose name I can't recall just now.

As for trainers having any idea on just how far their horses may run I like to think we handicappers are a better judge of that. My principle is to ignore almost everything a trainer says about a promising horse.

Dickinson is obviously a good trainer. Da Hoss and El Huevo shed some light upon that, but standing alone, his decisions upon where to place Tapit won't carry the horse those last two marks in the Derby when he's under the pressure of quality competition. Dickinson is being very careful with Tapit. It seems the plan may be to have perhaps two more races in him prior to the Derby. If so, he'd be coming into the Derby with a total of four starts under his belt. That would be significantly fewer than the two year olds I mentioned above. But training a horse up to the Kentucky Derby in a conservative Irish Darby manner will not impart to that horse the ability to run further in quality company than he would otherwise be capable of. Which is not to say just yet that Tapit doesn't have that stamina.

This is an interesting year. Many horses skipped the Breeders Cup Juvenile and as of now there is no Derby standout. Is it Action this Day? The leading prospect may be Tapit, but right now I'd project an out of the money finish for him and that projection is based upon pedigree.

As Beyer implied theres a timetable to make the Derby and a trainer that is used to picking his spots can't expand that time to his benefit by insulating his horse from competition and seasoning until the big day. Baring misfortune, I'm sure Tapit will run 9 marks by Floridy Derby or Wood or Santa Anita Derby or Arkansas Derby or Blue Grass time. Lets see how he fairs there before we begin seriously considering his ability to win the 2004 Kentucky Derby.

I guess I've belabored this a bit...but Beyer started it.

lol

CtC