By post position, here's my rundown on the Malibu Stakes at SA on 12/26/3.

1. Midas Eyes (119) (3-1)--is the fastest horse and the one to beat. Didn't like the effort two back, the BC Sprint at SA, but his last was better and he has better to run back to. Even a repeat from the rail puts him in this. Somewhat positive read.

2. Baltic Heights (115) (15-1)--lightly raced, is one of the slowest horses in here. His last, a slight new top, augurs well, despite slight pattern. Has 10 weeks into this, light weight, and his most inside post yet. 15 of 17 Harty runners in the last 90 days have either paired or run a new top. I think a new top is coming here but there's a high probability that it won't be good enough. A wet track would help. Positive read, but slow.

3. Watchem Smokey (119) (3-1)--another Frankel runner and part of an entry with Midas Eyes above. Frankel got him two back, put him on grass and lost for the first time. The return to dirt last out yielded a slight new top, a good sign. Likely to save ground, but needs a new top to win. He could run it. Positive read, but obviously the slower of the two.

4. Blazonry (117) (6-1)--ran a big one last out in May and it hurt. Prefers dirt. Working up a storm for a trainer that can win off long layoffs but does better 2nd off the layoff. Smith sticks. May lose ground with stalker, off the pace running style. Fast enough to contend, but I'm inclined to think his best is NOT coming today, although first time 4yos can always pop Neutral read.

5. Marino Marini (115) (20-1)--makes his first dirt start against some tigers. His turf figures are good but not fast enough to compete with these although pedigree-wise, he's better suited for dirt. Has to improve to be a factor. Negative read.

6. Domestic Dispute (117) (20-1)--bounced in the Derby and his two subsequent starts were worse. Has had time off since his last but a pair up is about the best one can expect and that ain't going to get it done. Negative read.

7. Buddy Gil (121) (6-1)--also bounced in the Derby, not too badly, after three big efforts, including a top in SA Derby fast enough to compete here. Handicapped by the high weight and post, somewhat. Working well for a hot trainer that does well off extended layoffs. Contender. Neutral to positive read.

8. Eye Of The Tiger (117) (10-1)--sports a very solid line and makes his first start in over three months for a trainer who can win in this spot. Ground loss looms. Has to improve to contend. Strong pattern. Positive read. Long shot.

9. Special Rate (117) (15-1)--ran his top second time out this spring, reacted, laid off, subsequently paired up twice but hasn't surpassed the top. The slowest of the three Frankel horses, this guy should have run better in either of his last two dirt races. Ground loss likely. Slow. Negative read.

10. Posse (119) (4-1)--has been pounding out figures all year long and finally got over the hump last time out. He will react. The question is how much? Negative read.

11. Southern Image (115) (15-1)--obviously has physical problems. This trainer's charges have paired or run new tops at a 70% clip in the last 90 days. But another 4 won't do it. The low weight is offset by the potential ground loss. Negative read.

12. Toccet (115) (15-1)--ships cross-country, hot to cold, after a pair of tops and six races since mid-August. A bounce is very likely. Negative read.

13. Zavata (117) (8-1)--got hurt by his top in early August and hasn't given any indication that he's recovered. Time always helps which means he may run better today but the outside post works against him. His second best won't do. Negative read.


One point I didn't mention above but bears stating is the first time 4yo factor. Essentially these horses, 5 days is close enough, are first time 4yos. Often first time 4yos run new tops after layoffs, especially under the tutelege of layoff conditioners.

Horses with post positions 1, 2, 3, 4, 7 and 8 are the positive reads. Horses 2, 4, 7 and 8 are the eligible 1st time 4yos among these.

Comments?



TGAB