Furlong,

I will let the TG folks give a more complete answer but let me give you one example. The big difference with these stats is that they help a sheet user handicap by telling you what figure to play a horse to run relative to its effective top (and the chance that the horse will run that number). Keep in mind that a "pair" means the horse ran within +/- a point of its EFFECTIVE TOP. It does NOT mean that it paired its previous figure.

Let's take a horse off a layoff for an example.

Say the trainer wins 5% of the time and finishes ITM only 25% of the time off a layoff. The poor % could be the result of a trainer that typically runs the horse in over its head off the bench rather than one that seldom has such a horse fit?

What you want to know rather than win% is does the horse in question have a top fast enough to win this race and, if so, what is the chance that the horse will run that top off the bench?

The new stats tell you that. Look at the more than 90 days stat and see what % of the time the trainer gets a new top or a pair. Lets say its 25% for each. That means you probably have a 50/50 chance of seeing the horse run equal to or above its current top. If that is good enough to win and the horse has odds of much better than even money, then it is probably good value regarless of the win% off a layoff.

Of course, you might want to bump the chances up or down a little depending on the age of the horse and how strong the overall line is (the younger the horse and the stronger the line the more likely to run a top or better off the bench). (Note it would be nice to get some of these stats by age but that cuts the sample size and makes it even more confusing.)

That is just one example. There are many, many others.

These stats really are leading edge stuff.

I hope that helps a little. Keep experimenting with them and I think you will begin to see their value.

I will try to remember to point out a few more examples on the board (in advance of the race, if I can remember to do so). Maybe TG can do the same in the ROTW.

Good luck.

Chris