Chris

Thank you for taking the time to respond to my post and for the clarity of your response. In your example of the layoff horse coming back you are actually framing my concern. Let's say the horse is a solid contender if he runs back to or beyond the effective top of his last 6 races/1year. If the layoff stats. of the trainer are as you suggest [25% top, 25%pair] and that was the only stat we were looking at then great we have an edge. But supposing his numbers are 10% top 10%pair with the rider he's using today and 10% and 10% in 2 turn races and that's today's distance. Then the liklihood of the horse's performance today being in the neighborhood of his effective top is made much more uncertain I think. I have found in looking at the figures that if you take the figures that are applicable to today's race there are many conflicts such as this which really leaves me shaking my head. I know these exist in the "runs based" stats also but they seem more confusing and contrary in these new figures.
If the horse runs well do we say " well it was right there in the trainer's layoff "figure based numbers" or if he runs poorly do we say"of course, look at the figs., he never puts this rider on a live horse".
It seems to me that the overwhelming strength of the Thorograph product is the way it frames a race. Eight horses in. Four are too slow. Then you look at the other four horses. How much statistical information do you need before it becomes overkill. There are so many factors. Rider,trainer,distance,post position,etc. in addition to figuring the number pattern. I find the runs based figures straightforward and very helpful. Do I really want more figures that are very often contradictory to look at? I really don't unless it's sure thing helpful.
I understand the merit of your argument as you expressed it and certainly respect your right to want and use these figures but from what I've seen so far or rather understood so far I feel they are more information than I need and tend to confuse me as much as help me. I will however keep trying and thank you again for responding.