TGAB -

I've just listened to the seminar on your methodology. My compliments. I thought I knew quite a bit about figure making from having read Beyer's book and having listened to some Ragozin introductory tapes years ago (forgive me, I was young), but I found your seminar quite educational and concise.

I do have one quibble on wind effects. The seminar says (paraphrasing here) that wind velocity has no effect in a one mile race on a one mile symmetrical oval, because the headwind at any given point on the track is offset by a tailwind at the opposite point on the other side of the track. I don't think that's quite true.

Wind resistance is a function of how fast a horse is moving through the air. Accordingly, a horse running 35 mph (slightly slower than 12 seconds per furlong) on a perfectly still day experiences the same force as if he were standing still in a 35 mph wind. When he is running into a 20 mph headwind, his airspeed is 55 mph (35+20). When he has the same 20 mph wind at his back, his airspeed is 15 mph (35-20).

One might think that, since the average of 55 mph and 15 mph is the same 35 mph that the horse would experience on a still day, the increased wind velocity has no net effect. However, that's not true because, as your seminar says, the effect of airspeed is geometric. Wind resistance is proportional to airspeed squared. The increase in wind resistance caused by increasing airspeed from 35 mph to 55 mph is greater than the decrease in wind resistance caused by reducing airspeed from 35 mph to 15 mph. Ignoring parts of the course where a horse is not running directly into or with the wind, my rough calculation is that a horse running in a 20 mph wind experiences approximately 30% more wind resistance than a horse running on a still day.

With that said, I'm not sure how significant it all is. An increase in wind resistance of 30% might not be a big deal in the larger scheme of things and might be offset in part by adjusting the track variant.