I cringe every time I hear the word "geometric" used in this context, because I co-wrote that seminar, and the right word is exponential (I think).

Actually, the wind stuff is even more complicated than you are saying. I had a friend who had an interest in aeronautics, and who since became a meteoroligist, do our original formula. But you end up adjusting it by looking at the effect it is having on the figures, and it isn't that accurate because

1-- Both direction and speed are estimated by a guy looking at flags before and after the race-- during it he is watching the horses to do ground, and wind can gust or die down.

2-- There is a really big building right there bouncing wind all over the place, and it may not be reflected in what you see looking at the flags.

3-- If you want to get really technical about it, in your example the horses are spending more time running into the wind, simply because it is slowing them down.

Yet another reason to make race by race adjustments. Wind corrections are just a rough guide-- and don't get me started on Ragozin's use of interval readings from airports not located at the track.



TGJB