So many concepts are placed on the board it seems like an impossible race to play with lots of confidence, unless you jump in like mjellish and a few others.
Getting a clean trip with a solid contender probably trumps everything else, keep statement being "solid contender".
I've had very good success in the past just tracking which jockeys continuously find themselves in trouble in these 20 horse fields.
Its not been a secret I'm a very long time fan of Mike Smith, yet, in the last 5 Derby's he's found trouble 3 different times with working a trip. The 2 lone exceptions being Bodemeister and Palace Malice, both of whom sped to the front and avoided trouble.
Even J. Castellano has managed to have trouble lines in 3 of his 4 mounts.
And Jon Court is batting 100% with troubled trips all 3 of his Derby's.
Bejarano is clipping along at 3 bad trips in 5 Derby's.
The king trouble finder is Leparoux with 4 troubled trips in 5 Derby's, the lone clean trip was on Awesome Act who broke 16th and finished 19th.
Kent Desormeaux 3 bad troubled trips in 3 Derby's.
The clean trippers? Among others Maragh, Nakatani, and Rosario. All clean trips except Maragh has only passed 4 horses in 3 races while Rosario (I know Orb passed a bunch last year), but he also passed in the other two races a total of 12 more horses, (4 and 8). 26 horses passed in 3 Derby's with no trouble yet. I know off the pace, blah, blah, blah.
Even Borel has had trouble lines in 2 of his 5 Derby races.
So, far from a science, this rationale can be like walking on the edge of a razor, yet, the guys that find trouble seem to find trouble, and those who avoid trouble tend to avoid trouble and still make meaningful moves in the race.
Just adding to the confusion here.