I actually hate the bounce, because its a projection and I always feel the best bets are when you get good odds without projecting. It's speculative too, because some developing 3 year olds don't bounce off big efforts. But the essential question is "how big was the previous effort". I have figures (non T-Graph, though I may break down and buy "T" for this one race, I'm still evaluating) but my figures are varied. One says top effort and another says not a top. The problem is I'm convinced there was a significant split variant for one turn and two turn races FOY day. If you doubt that premise check out the respective DRF variants for Value Plus and Read the Footnotes on February 14th:

http://drf.com/row/pps/florida_derby.pdf

Also keep in mind that if I am right about the split variant I may be wrong about the extent of it.

I don't think my source that makes RTF's Fountain a non top factored that split. I could be wrong, but I dont think they did. I know this track. At times I dominate it. I think the race was HUGE. Beyer makes it big and I'm not even certain he got the split variant right.

Other evidence tending to indicate it was a big effort is that Bailey was all over RTF to get him to nose 2nd of June. Also, 2nd of June, Silver Wagon and Sir Oscar all came down with infirmities of some kind. Silver Wagon was really trying in the last part of that race, he couldn't gain any ground but he wasn't losing any either. Its the nature of the track and I think it was brutually speed favoring in the stretch that day. They say Silver Wagon was a miler. I don't think thats necessarily true.

"So why the big variant discrepancy Chuckles you numbskull?"...lol In a word "Weather". Lots of rain, high water table. Do you remember when they closed Hallandale for a couple of consecutive days? They did. They wouldn't allow racing. The jockeys found one part of the track was unsafe. "Rutted" is the word I recall. I dont know which part that was, but I'm guessing the work done either sped that section up or slowed it down and the new soils and track composition are the reason for the difference in race times. I could be wrong, but I suspect I'm not.

So back to RTF. I gotta tell you, I really like this horse. If he's a great one he's gonna overcome that torrid last race. If he's not he's gonna regress in my opinion. I've always found that the next great horse is a bit further away than you thought he was and that you should wager accordingly.

After further review:

T-Graph is really gonna be put to the test or earn its keep on this card. I'll be reviewing the Red Board carefully on this one. If you're "holding" keep your eyes on the races where GP two turn horses meet GP one turn horses with races on or near FOY day. (Feb 14). Compare the T-Graph number with the Racing Form figure and be your own judge. (I suspect T-Graph is all over the split variant) I analyzed the FOY card carefully for change in race times or "Break Off" races. I think it possible that the slow clubhouse turn may have sped up as the day went on, but I can not say the same of the one turn races.

1 -3yo, NW2X, 1mile 70 yards, :24.33, :48.84, 1:12.82, 1:42.40
3 -3yo, MSW, 9 marks :23.62, :48.10, 1:12.94, 1:39.39, 1:52.66
4 -3yo, NW1X, 7 marks :21.45, :43.48, 1:09.17, 1:22.86
6 -3yo, NW1X, 7 marks :22.18, :44.61, 1:08.91, 1:21.42
7 -4up, NW3X, 6.5 marks :21.93, :44.16, 1:09.14, 1:16.19
8 -3yo Fillies, 100K Stake, 6 marks :21.37, :44.00, :56.00, 1:08.85
9 -3yo, NW1X, 9 marks :23.43, :47.29, 1:12.02, 1:38.04, 1:50.67
10-3yo, 150K Stake, 7 marks :21.68, :43.73, 1:08.96, 1:22.23
11-3yo, 250K Stake, 8.5 marks :23.97, :47.70, 1:11.21, 1:36.16, 1:42.71
12-3yo, MSW, 6 marks :22.16, :45.14, :57.53, 1:10.09

To my eye the FOY card was a large split variant day (one vs two turn races) with possible two turn "break off" races. Talk about a nightmare! If the track became quicker on two turn races the effort by RTF is not as big as it would otherwise appear. As the card progresses watch these horses in respective order. They may give a hint about changing track speed in the two turn races and thus RTF's actual effort. Granted, some of these horses will start after RTF's race. I don't mean to imply that any of these horses are bets:

+ Playhurt - 2nd
+ Summer Book - 6th
+ Samir - 6th
+ Intimidator - 7th
+ Suave - 7th
+ Lightness - 7th
+ Albaaz - 8th
+ Colonel Warden - 8th
- Value Plus - 9th
+ Caiman - 10th
+ My Ro - 11th
+ Rageously - 12th
+ Bourbannais - 13th
- Christines Outlaw - 13th

This is a VERY interesting card.

Also keep in mind that wagering upon track anomalies that don't exist is a certain way to finish 6th, 7th and 8th all day and that this track generally carries speed, that you get what you pay for and that my insights are free. Test my hypotheses with T-Graph, I may be with you on this card. Its a tough one for me to figure.

CtC



Post Edited (03-13-04 09:19)