This is good stuff, funny you mentioned the pace because I'm really struggling with that, especially with the constantly changing field.

It is my true belief (just an opinion, nothing to base it on) that Smith's ride on Palace Malice last year was the result of an attempt to think on the 3rd level:

1st level - there are a lot of E/EP speedballs in this race
2nd level - I'd better not try for the lead in this race due to Level 1
3rd level - everyone else is thinking on level 2, so I'm going to gun for the lead

Though it did not work for him, and hasn't worked for many others that happened to try this over the years, it still seems like jocks will attempt to try this. Trying to figure out who is thinking what is tough, however, as you can't even trust comments made in public at face value, as they may be an attempt to deceive.

Gonna be a tough call until we have a final field and PPs drawn. But the one thing I will say is, over the past 10-15 years, the horses that have run near 0s leading up to the derby and are able to duplicate good efforts are almost always the horses that run double digit pace figures for early and middle fractions and triple digit late pace figures.

Have been some exceptions, to be sure, but in general if there is a pattern to look for, I want someone who looks good on TG, has excellent workout reports, has female stamina breeding, and has a pace profile that leads me to believe there's a good chance he will pair/top in the derby. Problem with this year is, not sure I'm going to get slam dunks in these categories and it may be time to think outside the box a little.