I still think RTF has a shot. I understand they are gonna go Wood. If he were my horse, I'd go Lexington take the extra week, hit on less formidable competition, take advantage of the Keeneland surface and try to slide into the Derby with the horse feeling good about a win under his belt. There would be value in betting him Derby too because with the unproven form at 9 marks many would let him go. He may not want 10 marks but we didn't see him on Fla. Derby day.

On another note, I read how a new jockey is tearing up Turfway. Won seven races the other day."Bejarano" is his name. Does anyone know what happened to that bug phenom Kris Prather? Is she still riding? I remember betting against her when she lost the bug and thought she could ride with jocks at Oaklawn. I don't think she won a race. Anyone know where she is?

Found this story which is significant for a couple of reasons, one of which is the variants for recent Gulfstream Races:

Trainers unhappy about dry track

Todd Pletcher won four races here on Saturday and watched Value Plus finish a good second in the Florida Derby. But, that doesn't mean the meet's leading trainer was pleased with everything.

Pletcher was miffed with how loose and cuppy the main track was for the Florida Derby. The final time of 1:51.38 equaled the fifth slowest in the 53-year history of the race.

"I was delighted with everything with the exception of the fact I think the track should have been tightened up," Pletcher said. "I complained earlier in the day that when it's windy like this, you've got to put a little more water on the track. I hate to see horses like this go in 1:51; they shouldn't. It's just too cuppy.

"Everyone will look at 1:51 and say it's a slow time," Pletcher added. "People need to look at the track before they decide that. It was too dry."

John Kimmel, trainer of Florida Derby winner Friends Lake, concurred with Pletcher's assessment.

"The track was all dried out," Kimmel said. "It was not in pristine shape before the race."

There was a 74-minute break between dirt races on Saturday. A turf race was run prior to the Florida Derby. Dennis Testa, director of operations for Gulfstream, maintained that the track had sufficient moisture in it.

"It was dry on the top but had plenty of moisture on the bottom," Testa said. "The race before it, and the race after that, the times were good. That particular race had a slow pace."

Unquote

I believe Testa is correct. Suave's race just before the Florida Derby was faster and Newfoundland's race at the end of the card was run in good final time, albeit on soft fractions. To me, Testa sounds credible when you consider Suave and Newfoundland's race times. I think Pletcher is pulling the D.Wayne nonsense. Pletcher is a speed trainer, the faster the surface and shorter the race the better it is for him. But what I find especially interesting about this story is that with wind, lack of watering and the appearance of the track surface being dry on top its Pletcher's contention the track was getting slower. Upon very similar variables FOY day (wind, lack of water) TGJB factored the track getting faster. Now the direction and extent of the wind could be a factor there (Off the water bringing more humidity for instance) and perhaps TGJB could chime in regarding the wind data for the respective days. (Which is not to say I weigh what Pletcher thinks more heavily than T-Graph. I certainly DON'T) But whats revealing about this card is that there was a race after the slowly run Derby, the final time of which tends to validate Testa in his statement that the track had requisite moisture, did not dry out appreciably despite the lack of water and was not cuppy and slow. On FOY day there was no post FOY two turn race to use when assigning the performance figure for the FOY runners.

I wouldn't want to have to make figures for the Florida Derby. I think Gulfstream is a quagmire for fig makers right now.


CtC



Post Edited (03-16-04 04:56)