Mig is a good jock.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2003/derby_history/derby_charts/jockeys/393.html

The race is BIG, not in purse, but in what it means to those that are involved in the game. Good jockeys get excited and make mistakes in that race. I think the reason you can count on Bailey is that he's so cold. I don't think the enormity of the history really impacts him. I think he sees the 60K he's gonna win by crossing the wire first and thats how he's so calculating. Theres good horses in this race, but its a horse race first and a jockey contest second. For all the good horses Bailey has been on its a tough race to win. He's won it twice, thats a good record but its not phenomenal. Theres plenty of jockeys I'd take heads up with him any day and a couple I'd absolutely favor.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2003/derby_history/derby_charts/jockeys/33.html

The year Bailey won on Sea Hero he got a little lucky. The Crop was not strong and he slipped inside of Prairie Bayou is my recollection. I'm glad he won that year though :) No arguing with his two winning rides, they were outstanding. One got me the money, the other cost me it.

But I do believe he's on the downward side now and that Frankel's wonder horses are the main thing that keeps him doing well in big races. Bailey is a good jockey...

to bet against.

None of which means I'd back Friends Lake after he's been trained up to the Derby on his last two efforts. I may, but only after watching him closely in the paddock and the post parade. If you do that at Churchill you'll never get the bet down. If you do it from the puter, you may never see the antics. However, any sign of anxiousness in that race would not be a good thing.

If he doesn't start again off the slowish Florida Derby number he'll be "value" in the Derby. He's gonna be in the 10-1 range, maybe more.

24.34, 48.75, 1:12.24, 1:38.20, 1:51.38
four wide final turn, came home in 13:18, extrapolated 26:36. But was he even the best A.p. Indy on the card?

Suave:

23.59, 48.32, 1:12.88, 1:38.21, 1:50.97
came home in 12:76, extrapolated 25:52. But if you're pondering which Indy is best, you have to ponder if in those respective races whether other horses were even better.

CtC