Firstly, you have to recognize which tracks you have insight into and which you don't. I consider myself an "A" handicapper at Saratoga, a "B" handicapper at Belmont and a "C" or "D" handicapper at Aqueduct, depending. But I love this race. I'll never forgot Easy Goers Gotham, how effortlessly he won and how large the winning margin was, albeit over less than top class horses. I didn't believe the time for the race, but back to reality.

Some random observations on the Gotham which looks to be run on a wet and perhaps deep track. There is plenty of quality speed and some quality stamina so pace will have to be factored along with any track bias that may manifest itself:

Deputy Storm - Perhaps the fastest of the fast and has been a committed front runner and has liked off surfaces. He couldn't handle Limehouse last who caught his wicked speed on torrid sprint day. He closed in 13:62

Eddington - Has run two good ones since adding blinkers. He ran well on the Main, though he may have bled that day. Final work at GP was encouraging. May not have blinding speed but appears to have tactical speed.

Wars Prospect - was quitting at 6marks, easiest kind of winner at 8 and 70 yards. Working very well. Not a prep for him, but a class issue, especially if he doesn't get the lead he's use to having. But when he jumped out of the gate up by 7 last it may be a matter of how much faster he could have run.

Pomeroy - When I analyzed this race once over, my thoughts were "Find the horse that can beat Limehouse and you have the winner". This horse beat Limehouse. The back figs are two year old numbers. He's in all likelihood faster now. He has a good off track record. He's won at a mile. He's first Lasix and first time blinkers and he has shown the ability to rate from just off the pace. Its an issue of intent. What is the trainer really trying to do with this horse? After the disqualification last, he shipped to Santa Anita in September. Why? He never raced there. I see enough talent to believe he was bound for the Breeders Cup Juvenile and something set him back. (Caveat: Trainer may be SA based. I don't know) The trainer has just stated the following:

"Biancone says he doesn't believe he has Pomeroy as cranked for this year's Gotham as he had Mayakovsky for the one in 2002.

"He's well enough to run, he's not geared up," Biancone said. "As long as I run a good first race of the year, I'll be happy."

Such is life.

Saratoga County - derby1592's fine Hutchenson selection. Could he have beat Limehouse? No off track form, but perhaps bred to handle it. Will probably be coming at the end, the question may be how much work will he have to do? The jock is scalding.

Redskin Warrior - The easiest kind of winner last. Competitive Speed but has rated off early pace of races. Has liked the Main. The only entrant apparently working at and stabled at the track. Don't recognize the sale. I suspect its a two year old in training sale and he's got some conformation blemishes somewhere.

Rockhewn - Beaten by War's Prospect last but may have bled. Has a closers line. This race is also not a prep for him, but then only Eddington and Pomeroy look like preppers.

Quick Action - One of four stakes winners in the field. You have to wonder how he got his name? Stabled nearby, has liked the main. Has run well on off and tiring tracks. Wayne is 4 for 91, This horse has 25% of those wins. He's very fast and to my mind the outside post is an advantage in this one. A shot of the old Lukas 8 mark mojo?

There that simplifies it doesn't it? Aren't you glad you read this post?...lol

Helluva Race

Your in the T-Graph boys backyard here. They know the subtleties of the Aqueduct Tracks and how weather affects them. Their figs are gonna reflect that expertise. Big Home Court Edge T-Graph. (Lay the points)

Well the Lane's End came up an interesting race. As TGJB pointed out, it appears Zito is micro managing his horses efforts towards May 1st tops, so despite an apparent class edge it may be that "The Bird" is not fully geared for this. Zito's others don't appear to have been. You can anticipate an off track and Bird relished the one he caught at the Spa. However, he catches the one hole here and hes gonna have to maintain position early or get goo kicked in his face. (assuming the track comes up goo which is the current projection) I don't think Bailey is gonna allow the goo scenario, so in all likelihood its gonna be a closer to the pace effort than it has been for him and in that regard one has to handicap how that will impact the outcome. If he alters somewhat his pace style, maintains position and wins on an off track that will certainly be overcoming adversity and validate his ranking in this crop.

CtC



Post Edited (03-19-04 11:09)