Re: Gotham, Home Court Advantage and Birdstone (522 Views)
Posted by:
derby1592 (IP Logged)
Date: March 19, 2004 08:56PM
I agree Joe B.'s observation that the Gotham typically is won on the front end; however, I think there is a potential for a pace meltdown in this one, which I think could set it up for Eddington, Saratoga County.
At the morning line, neither is a good bet but given all the hype around Eddington and a few others in this race, I have to believe that Saratoga County will go off at well above his morning line of 5/1. I actually expect double digit odds, which would make him a possible key in here.
In all deference to the the excellent TG trackman at GP, I would rate SC's last as more like an OP++ than and OP- so I don't think he is quite as slow coming in as his last fig would indicate. He lost all chance at the start spotting the entire field 10-15 lengths right out of the gate. He is not a plodder and if he breaks alertly this time he is definitely capable of one of those big April jump-ups we sometimes see in the better three year olds in races like this.
Rockhewn is also an interesting longshot bomb to throw into the exotics. He is very slow coming in but will benefit from the likely hot pace and he has a very explosive looking line. He also gets the first juice and his trainer has gotten a new top 6 out of 11 times 1L. If there is a pace meltdown, he may just get up for a piece of it late and trigger some nice exotics.
Of course, with my luck, Deupty Storm will jump out to an easy lead and wire the field but that's racing.
Good luck to all.
Chris
P.S. I sure like the special "extra" trainer stats we get with the ROTW. I wish we got them for all races.
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