You're still onto it Jerry. When you add up the number of huge dollars spent on unproven yearlings, you're much better off taking a chance on some conformity issues with a proven runner. I just don't think there’s any doubt about that. So you have an outfit like Team Valor that buys a Captain Bodgit for 200K. (I think that’s what they paid.) He won the Florida Derby and Wood for them and came within a good jocks ride of winning the Derby (That and a dead game Silver Charm) before he went bad. You're Victory Gallop was another great one for 500K. When you look at the number of 500K yearlings sold that don't amount to a hill of beans on the track or in the breeding shed its not even arguable. The amount of Phipps blueblood that’s shipped to Japan and elsewhere is further evidence that finding "residual breeding value" in the yearling market, especially for a colt, is as much or more of a crapshoot than is finding a superior horse there.

I think Brass Hat, being a Grandson of Kris S., (who is gone now), has some breeding potential. Prized is getting a little long in the tooth. (I thought he was in New Zealand.) And Dixie Brass was a freak. (At least for two races) Prized and Dixie Brass in the pedigree is a nice mix of speed, stamina and possible turf influence. I don't know what T-Graph makes the Rushaway figure to be I'm guessing 1 or 2 range with the wide path factored. The problem is I really believe the wide was to his benefit in that race and I did notice he was also wide in the preceding event. I don't know for sure how long the anti rail bias was in existence. So I guess we'll see about Brass Hat.

I said this before and I'll say it again. Any friends of Satish Sanan out there that per chance become aware of this site I strongly encourage them to suggest allowing Thorograph to buy Padua three horses for 500K-1000K each. I guarantee you'll do better than hoping and praying in the yearling market. Look at what they've done for WinStar's stallion roster. A good stallion is not ALL about pedigree. Distorted Humor is going to be a long-term force if he stays healthy.

CtC



Post Edited (03-23-04 14:09)