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 Race of the Week:  2023 Breeders' Cup Days Final Figures Santa Anita 3-4 November 2023  • 1 Specials Available
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Santa Anita Derby (857 Views)
Posted by: Dana (IP Logged)
Date: April 02, 2004 12:54PM

Here's my Santa Anita Derby rundown with my morning line:

1-Imperialism (8-1) I see him as a one-turn sprinter, maybe a Met Mile type, even, but I think he's a non-contender here. Not fast enough on my numbers.

2-Lucky Pulpit (15-1) Mostly a pace factor here, but I have a hard time seeing him stick around; he only ran one race fast enough to contend here, and I don't see him running back to it.

3-Wimbledon (8-5) Right now he'd be my Kentucky Derby Pick -- his new found running style (being able to relax or maybe he just matured) helps him a lot. I think he's an underlay here though; Baffert doesn't care to squeeze the lemon dry as they say -- all he need do is run well and finish (against what is usually a speed biased track on Santa Anita Derby Day) to set him up for the big derby. He could win this, but I look for him the first Sat. in May, not April.

4-Castledale(30-1) Not a threat here. Not sure why Mullins is keeping him on the dirt; in my mind, he's clearly a grass horse.

5-Quinton's Gold Rush (8-1) He's a puzzler to me; I liked him in the San Rafeal; he just didn't relax and seemed uncomfortable; he really needs to mature and fast and that's not what usualy happens in Grade I races; I'll say, he could be the speed here and could go a long way; tough call for me -- usually when I jump off they win big, so maybe you all want to hammer him.

6-Rock Hard Ten (6-1) Every wise guy's special. He's way too slow on my numbers though one could argue he's never even run more than a quarter mile, so maybe there's this limitless potential for him to find; my guess would be this is a tough spot, and if he lags behind these he'll have no shot -- I'm not biting, so again, upgrade his chances since I've jumped off!

7-St Averil (2-1) The fastest three year old in the country on my numbers; I love him here, plus he gets to stalk the speed from a great post; anything over 2-1 would be amazing to me, though if they bet Rock Hard Ten and Wimbledon big, I might even get 3-1 (perhaps I'm dreaming). I feel this is his day to shine; I'm not tossing him in the Kenturcky Derby either (unless he runs poorly here), but I think this is HIS Derby. Interestingly, I said I like Wimbledon in the Ken. Derby, but if you look up breeding, this guy has way better breeding than Wimbledon.

Good Luck to all.




Subject Written By Posted
Santa Anita Derby (857 Views) Dana 04/02/2004 12:54PM
Re: Santa Anita Derby (511 Views) derby1592 04/02/2004 03:58PM
Re: Santa Anita Derby (539 Views) jbelfior 04/02/2004 05:09PM
Re: Santa Anita Derby (507 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 04/02/2004 06:41PM
Re: Santa Anita Derby (535 Views) kev 04/02/2004 05:35PM
Re: Santa Anita Derby (588 Views) ronwar 04/02/2004 09:12PM
Re: Santa Anita Derby (463 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 04/02/2004 10:37PM
Re: Santa Anita Derby (507 Views) Michael 04/03/2004 03:19AM


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