Santa Anita Derby (857 Views)
Posted by:
Dana (IP Logged)
Date: April 02, 2004 12:54PM
Here's my Santa Anita Derby rundown with my morning line:
1-Imperialism (8-1) I see him as a one-turn sprinter, maybe a Met Mile type, even, but I think he's a non-contender here. Not fast enough on my numbers.
2-Lucky Pulpit (15-1) Mostly a pace factor here, but I have a hard time seeing him stick around; he only ran one race fast enough to contend here, and I don't see him running back to it.
3-Wimbledon (8-5) Right now he'd be my Kentucky Derby Pick -- his new found running style (being able to relax or maybe he just matured) helps him a lot. I think he's an underlay here though; Baffert doesn't care to squeeze the lemon dry as they say -- all he need do is run well and finish (against what is usually a speed biased track on Santa Anita Derby Day) to set him up for the big derby. He could win this, but I look for him the first Sat. in May, not April.
4-Castledale(30-1) Not a threat here. Not sure why Mullins is keeping him on the dirt; in my mind, he's clearly a grass horse.
5-Quinton's Gold Rush (8-1) He's a puzzler to me; I liked him in the San Rafeal; he just didn't relax and seemed uncomfortable; he really needs to mature and fast and that's not what usualy happens in Grade I races; I'll say, he could be the speed here and could go a long way; tough call for me -- usually when I jump off they win big, so maybe you all want to hammer him.
6-Rock Hard Ten (6-1) Every wise guy's special. He's way too slow on my numbers though one could argue he's never even run more than a quarter mile, so maybe there's this limitless potential for him to find; my guess would be this is a tough spot, and if he lags behind these he'll have no shot -- I'm not biting, so again, upgrade his chances since I've jumped off!
7-St Averil (2-1) The fastest three year old in the country on my numbers; I love him here, plus he gets to stalk the speed from a great post; anything over 2-1 would be amazing to me, though if they bet Rock Hard Ten and Wimbledon big, I might even get 3-1 (perhaps I'm dreaming). I feel this is his day to shine; I'm not tossing him in the Kenturcky Derby either (unless he runs poorly here), but I think this is HIS Derby. Interestingly, I said I like Wimbledon in the Ken. Derby, but if you look up breeding, this guy has way better breeding than Wimbledon.
Good Luck to all.