Mathcapper Wrote:
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> Rick --
>
> There is no "correct" probability line, but the
> win pool tends to be the most efficient, which is
> why the other pools are compared to it.

In this case it appears the win pool was *not* so
efficient, in back to back races:

* In race 6, the quoted ML for Mark of a Gem was 6-1; she
slipped away from the field (and the bettors) in an accident
marred race, paying a whopping $31.20...incredible overlay,
and remember, now the DD prices for the end of race 7 are
locked in regardless of how the win betting goes in the final leg.

* In race 7, Irish Surf was quoted at 8-1 before 3 scratches
were announced. I didn't see a recalculated ML, but of
some significance is that one of the scratches was Soi Phet, the
likely ML fave. Once that one scratched, it's easy to imagine
Irish Surf being on LOTS of tickets in the DD.

Whether the above is a plausible explanation for what happened
with the prices, trying to judge what happened from the raw
numbers alone is an exercise in futility, IMO: so, you are
right and the payoffs are "wrong" -- what is your next move?