Rick B. wrote:
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> Whether the above is a plausible explanation for what happened
with the prices, trying to judge what happened from the raw
numbers alone is an exercise in futility, IMO: so, you are
right and the payoffs are "wrong" -- what is your next move?


It's not an exercise in futility at all - if you see that the pools aren't in line with one another, you can get better value on your wager by betting the pool where the horse's odds are higher than what you think fair value is.

I didn't happen to download the matrix of DD Will Pays for the 7th race, but if I did I could tell you the exact odds that Mark of the Gem was in the DD pools to every single horse in the the 7th race. Same with Irish Surf to every horse in the 6th race. It's a closed-form solution.

It's possible that the winning combo was the only one that was an anomaly with respect to the win pools. It's also possible (but I doubt it) that Mark of a Gem was closer to 6-1 in the DD pools to each horse in the 7th race, or that Irish Surf was a much lower price in the DD pools to each horse in the 6th race than he was on the win pool.

Can't say for sure without seeing the DD Will Pays matrix. All I can say is that anomalies like the one seen with the winning combo are the exception, not the rule. The pools are generally in line with one another for the reasons I stated in my last post.

Morning lines and scratches are irrelevant. What determines a horse's odds in the DD pools is the same thing that determines his odds in the win pool - his probability of winning the race. How many tickets a horse will be on is simply a reflection of that probability.

Btw, this holds true even when you look all the way out to a pick 6 payoff. Overall, even pick 6 payoffs are in line with what you'd expect based on the win probabilities (odds) of each horse: ([url=https://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,84344,84407#msg-84407]Pick 6 Payoff Stats[/url]).

Rocky