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Re: DMR 7th Daily Double (442 Views)
Posted by: Rick B. (IP Logged)
Date: July 29, 2014 02:08AM

Boscar Obarra Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Speaking of seniority, and age before beauty and
> all that, here's a little math lesson for Rick,
> who seems to think a $20 bill was all it took to
> skew this payoff.

Huh? A $20 bill? I wrote that I had found a couple
of hundred dollars difference numerous times.

> Pool 54,000
> Ill use a 25% take, leaving 40,000
>
> If the DD had paid $300 (a conservative figure)
> that would have been $265 on the number.

$300? For two ML 6-1 shots? (The 2nd would be an adjusted
ML, after three early scratches.)

> As it is it paid $74, meaning there was $1135 on
> the ticket.
>
> $835 extra.

Um...$870 extra, using your numbers. But do continue
with my "math lesson", Professor.

> So Rick, would you call an 800 punch on two
> longshots "simply niggling over nickels"

No...if it actually happened. It didn't happen that way.

In this case, you failed to look at the win prices
in context of what actually happened on the race course.
You seem married to the idea that only the DD payoffs
can be short, and win prices are always a fair basis
for DD price projections.

(This is the same sort of flat earth thinking that leads
some number services to use one variant for a whole day's
races, no matter what happens weather-wise. But I digress.)

Those win prices were inflated, most any way you look
at it. Under the circumstances there was hardly a chance
in hell that the DD would pay $300.

Most everywhere I play, two ML 6-1 shots pay about
$100 for the DD, which, after calculation, means this
number had about $335 "extra" bet on it, just over
0.5% of the total pool...the pittance I usually find when
I have run the numbers in the past.

Sorry, nothing here.



Subject Written By Posted
DMR 7th Daily Double (909 Views) banditbeau 07/26/2014 10:56AM
Re: DMR 7th Daily Double (598 Views) Boscar Obarra 07/26/2014 12:46PM
Re: DMR 7th Daily Double (604 Views) Rick B. 07/26/2014 03:47PM
Re: DMR 7th Daily Double (531 Views) Boscar Obarra 07/26/2014 05:32PM
Re: DMR 7th Daily Double (580 Views) Rick B. 07/26/2014 08:12PM
Re: DMR 7th Daily Double (514 Views) Mathcapper 07/27/2014 12:22PM
Re: DMR 7th Daily Double (494 Views) Rick B. 07/27/2014 02:22PM
Re: DMR 7th Daily Double (473 Views) Mathcapper 07/28/2014 12:51AM
Re: DMR 7th Daily Double (456 Views) Boscar Obarra 07/28/2014 11:14AM
Re: DMR 7th Daily Double (430 Views) Paolo 07/28/2014 11:49AM
Re: DMR 7th Daily Double (431 Views) Rick B. 07/28/2014 01:41PM
Re: DMR 7th Daily Double (426 Views) jerry 07/28/2014 04:30PM
Re: DMR 7th Daily Double (355 Views) Rick B. 07/28/2014 08:25PM
Re: DMR 7th Daily Double (409 Views) moosepalm 07/28/2014 10:19PM
Re: DMR 7th Daily Double (439 Views) Boscar Obarra 07/28/2014 04:36PM
Re: DMR 7th Daily Double (770 Views) Rick B. 07/28/2014 08:13PM
Re: DMR 7th Daily Double (409 Views) Boscar Obarra 07/28/2014 11:48PM
Re: DMR 7th Daily Double (427 Views) Mathcapper 07/29/2014 02:02AM
Re: DMR 7th Daily Double (442 Views) Rick B. 07/29/2014 02:08AM
Re: DMR 7th Daily Double (545 Views) P-Dub 07/26/2014 06:09PM
Re: DMR 7th Daily Double (514 Views) Rick B. 07/26/2014 08:22PM
Re: DMR 7th Daily Double (544 Views) moosepalm 07/26/2014 09:31PM
Re: DMR 7th Daily Double (445 Views) jerry 07/27/2014 03:04AM
Re: DMR 7th Daily Double (543 Views) Mathcapper 07/26/2014 06:41PM
Re: DMR 7th Daily Double (504 Views) Tavasco 07/26/2014 07:01PM
Re: DMR 7th Daily Double (509 Views) Boscar Obarra 07/26/2014 07:59PM
Re: DMR 7th Daily Double (424 Views) gteasy 07/28/2014 02:41PM
Re: DMR 7th Daily Double (407 Views) Boscar Obarra 07/28/2014 04:35PM


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