Numbers (591 Views)
Posted by:
Chuckles_the_Clown2 (IP Logged)
Date: April 12, 2004 10:31PM
Swingforthefences is a Boston Harbor and his fade in the last sixteenth tends to elevate the performance of some of the others to my mind. He'd run a good 9 marks at Hallandale and it appeared he got tired at the end of the Wood, so the track, at least at two turns, may not have been as speed sustaining as everyone thinks. Silver called the Wood a "Key Race" and its very possible the efforts of Master David, Tapit and Eddington were better than the one turn races suggest. If it is key only the efforts of Master David and Tapit would appear to be significant, because Eddington, like SFTF, will in all likelihood be watching the next one.
If you're looking at comparisions SFTF, Mustanfar and Limehouse finished under a blanket in the Tampa Bay Derby and while SFTF was right there at the end of the Wood, Mustanfar and Limehouse fell significantly short of TCE and Lionheart. These things are relative due to a host of factors, but considering them isn't wasted time. I think its probable that SFTF ran a nice race, at least better than Mustanfar and Limehouse. Its also possible that TCE and Lionheart are better 9 mark horses right now than Tapit or Master David. Lets see what the figures say.
I made this post without seeing Silvers Beyer Numbers post...very interesting. Yes everyone would like to know the "Gold Standard" figure for those races. Regardless, TGJB has to be pleased TCE seems to be coming to hand. Another factor thats in his favor is he is nimble horse. He's gonna be able to do things in a large field a big plodder can't.
Bit Player turned me on to the Bris numbers
Beyer, Bris
TCE: 111,115
Smarty Jones: 107,105
Tapit: 98, 98
I'll obviously have to look more closely at the charts. My suspicion is they got TCE and Lionheart a little high and Tapit a little low. I don't think Aqueduct was speed favoring at two turns, but I don't think it was near as fast a track at two turns either.
If the numbers are accurate my backing of Smarty may have been premature...I won't be held to it...lol
Toscano is apparently pulling Sinister G. from the Derby picture. Proabably a careful move on the basis of the last race. He is a bit better than that though.http://www.drf.com/tc/trail/2004/news.html
CtC
Post Edited (04-12-04 23:07)