2014 Breeders Cup Saturday Analysis

Here's what I came up with on the 7 hr plane ride home last night. Thoughts/critiques appreciated. Thanks and good luck

Ok, time to focus on the single most important day of the year ( I mean, of course aside from wife and kids birthdays and my wedding anniversary just in case this analysis gets into the wrong hands!!!)

This will be the first time in 12 years I haven't been to the Breeders Cup in person thanks to the clueless Breeders Cup board members who keep scheduling the games biggest day on Halloween (way to go guys, next year as well, brilliant, but keep telling everyone you care about attracting young fans, maybe if you keep telling yourselves that, it will magically happen). Why not have the Breeders Cup on Christmas next year?

I am pretty sure the event will still go on as schedule even without me there so let's get down to it.

Race 4. Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies

Angela Renee (full sister to the great To Honor and Serve), Top Decile and Puca are the 3 co-fastest on thorograph and Puca gets first lasix so I have to go with Puca in the top slot. From the pictures I have seen this week, it didn't look like she was carrying too much which concerns me and will prevent me from making this a big play but I trust Mott to bring them there the right way and that last breeze was pretty freaky from a trainer who only works them fast when he thinks they are up to it (he would say the good ones are supposed to work fast which leads me to believe he thinks this is a good one). Nothing to knock at all on Angela Renee other than that she will be the favorite and isn't any faster than Puca who will be 2x the price. Top Decile ( owned in part by everyone's favorite affable night owl, and my buddy Billy Lawrence) drew a tough post but is fast on the thorograph and ran well last out after a bad break in a good field. She is absolutely live for a piece of this though Rosie will need to find a way to save some ground at some point in the race if this one is to contend for the top spot.

1. Puca. 2. Angela Renee. 3. Top Decile

Race 5. Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf

This race is really tricky for me this year because I would normally just put Europeans on top and throw out anyone who has a far outside post since this race starts on the turn and ground loss is critical in these races but this year might be a bit different. First of all, other than Dank, the euro fillies aren't getting lasix. And while firmer ground and a faster pace can still "move these fillies up" the euros who don't run on lasix tend not to run as well. On the outside post issue, Stephanie's Kitten has an awesome looking pattern and is really fast on the thorograph. Normally that outside post would scare me away entirely but I think she's a filly who likes being on the outside a bit more based on how she acted in her last few breezes. A very tough call here.

Dayatthespa is a good filly but she has bounced before when she ran a big tg figure like she did in her last and she also seems to run her best when the turf has some give to it. I will pass on her

The others don't seem fast enough based on the thorograph.

So, that leaves me hoping that Dank's odds creep up a bit on the morning line because she doesn't have great form on paper but that doesn't scare be because 1) she has been running against the best turf horses in the world, and 2) she's a different filly on lasix. She reminds me in that way of Red Rocks who went off at higher odds than he should have for his 2nd breeders cup win because his form didn't look great but he to was a different horse on lasix.

Emollient has a thorograph pattern that suggests she could be coming back to a big race and she ran well in a G1 at Santa Anita last out so at least we know she likes the course. That race was against relatively weak competition but if her pattern on tg holds to form, she should run well and could get a piece of this at a decent price.

1. Dank 2. Emollient. 3. Stephanie's Kitten

Race 6. Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Sprint

This is the first race on the Saturday card where I have a strong opinion and will take a big stand against a favorite. I have two strong views for this one and if either view doesn't play out, I will miss the race entirely. First, I think Sweet Reason is a great one turn filly and I think the favorite Artemis Agrotera is vulnerable as she has only ever run 1 very fast race (as per TG) and that was 2 back and then she bounced badly in her last. It's unlikely she would come back to the big race right away and if she doesn't, She's vulnerable.

So, I will key Sweet Reason in the top 2 spots along with Southern Honey, Judy the Beauty, Little Alexis and Better Lucky. 3 of those are big prices and all of them have TG figures and/or patterns that suggest they could run a big race.

1. Sweet Reason. 2. Judy the Beauty. 3. Southern Honey/Better Lucky/Little Alexis

Race 7. Breeders Cup Turf Sprint

I am horrible at handicapping the downhill turf course at Santa Anita. I have lost the GDP of some small countries over the years in races going down the hill, not only on Breeders Cup day but a race on this course has knocked me out of almost every multi race bet I have ever played at Santa Anita to the point I don't play multi race bets anymore that include races going down the hill.

The only good thing about this race on breeders cup day is that the one thing I do know about going down the hill is that it's extremely rare for a horse to win on this course first out against good competition. The best bet here is to play the horses that have won on this course before and to ignore everything else

Anyone trying to tell you they have a good idea about whether a horse will take to the downhill course with no prior experience is absolutely lying to you. There is no way to know. So, in this race, I will box the four horses that have run well on this course before. Reneesgotzip looked strong here before the post draw but its tough being down inside. I still give her a real chance but less likely for the top spot than before the post draw.

1. Home Run Kitten. 2. Ambitious Brew. 3. Reneesgotzip/Sweet Swap.

Race 8. Breeders Cup Juvenile

This race has a ton of pace even after the unfortunate withdrawal of morning line favorite American Pharaoh. I liked Calculator before AP got inured and to some extent I still do but but he is becoming something of a wise guy horse here and his odds aren't going to be what they should be. Pletcher's two are obviously very good but a) they ran so big last time they could bounce and b) Pletcher's horses have not run well in the recent Breeders Cups. It's interesting to see him bring out a relatively small contingent this year and I believe that is related to his relative lack of success here the last few years (it's a high bar for him obviously).

The horse I really loved before the post draw was Upstart who is tremendously fast on the TG, has run the fast tg figures twice making a bounce a bit less likely (i.e. he didn't react after the first big figure) and he has a running style that will benefit from the projected fast pace. However, that post is a killer and he will need to get very lucky with his trip to win this. Hopefully, he can still get up for a piece of this at a big price.

Bottom line is that I loved this race before AP scratched and before the post draw but I think its a just ok betting race now.

1. Calculator. 2. Carpe Diem. 3. Upstart. 4. Daredevil

Race 9. Breeders Cup Turf

This one is easy. After the injury to Magician, there are 3 grade 1 caliber European horses in the field (2 of whom have won G1s, the other has been right there against some of the best in Europe). Take the three of them and box them anyway you want and completely ignore the American horses. Grade 1 European horses are in a completely different category than American horses and some of the better American horses drew horribly anyway.

Of the three euros, Telescope drew the best and gets Lasix. Chiquita gets lasix and a few pounds since she's a filly. Flintshire may be the best of the three but he isn't getting lasix.

1. Telescope. 2. Chiquita. 3. Flintshire.

Race 10. Breeders Cup Sprint

This race is always fun and this year is no different. There are a lot of good horses ( no great horses but a lot of good ones) in this race. My focus here will be on what I think will be a very fast pace. I don't expect the front runners to be able to hang on and so I will box the 4 best stalkers/closers.

Rich Tapestry had one of the fastest closing kicks in the recent history of Santa Anita in his last race. He has to avoid a second time in the country bounce but interestingly, he didn't have lasix last time ( and won't again this time) so he might be more likely to avoid the backward move we sometimes see after a big first time effort from a foreign invader. Salutos Amigos is coming off a huge run just last week at Belmont (where he demolished one of my horses who was the favorite in the race among others). Jacobson has this horse in good form right now. He could have waited for the defrancis dash but he is shipping him here instead so he thinks he can hold his form from last week and if he does, he will be very dangerous given his running style. Palace is a good horse. His last was no good but he had run a string of big efforts before that and if can run back to those, he has a good shot. Mico Margarita is fast on the thorograph and is a big price on the morning line so he could spice up the exotics.

1. Rich Tapestry. 2 Salutos Amigos. 3. Palice. 4. Mico Margarita

Race 11. Breeders Cup Mile

I am really looking forward to this one as I expect Tornado to do something special. I think he is the most likely winner of any horse over the two days of Breeders Cup races. He's a multiple grade 1 winner in Europe who comes here in great form and gets lasix. In my view, everyone else is running for second.

There can still be good value in the race. Veda (who gets Lasix and 6 lbs) and Mustajeeb (no lasix) are my most likely underneath and Veda should be a price. Her last on TG was good and she gets a points worth of weight and Lasix so she is very live underneath at a decent price. Trade Storm won a G1 in his American debut at woodbine but he was a grade 3 horse in Europe underscoring how much better those horses are. Karakontie drew horribly and his last two on a firm turf course weren't good although bad trips and the wrong distance could be to blame for those as well. I would use him if not for the post but the 14 going a mile on the turf at Santa Anita is a death trap.

The two Americans I would use underneath are Grand Arch at a very good price and Kaigun who has excellent TG figures. I don't think they have any shot to win but could fill out exotics.

1. Tornado. 2. Veda. 3. Mustajeeb.

Race 12. Breeders Cup Classic.

A terrific betting race and a fitting conclusion to what seems like it will be two great days of racing. Unlike the mile, there are no all time greats in here but much like the sprint there are a bunch of good older hard knocking horses.

My key to this race is that I believe some of the 3 year olds are overrated. They are good but not great at this stage of their careers. There have been much better 3 year olds that have lost the classic to the same kind of journeymen older horses we have in this race (like when Bernadini lost to Invasor). No way I am taking 8-5 on Shared Belief when he's never beat a half decent horse in his life, especially on the dirt. Shared Belief is most certainly no Bernadini and even Bernadini wasn't good enough. California Chrome was at the right place at the right time for the Derby and Preakness but he has certainly been exposed for what he really is in his last 2 races and I expect more of the same here. Bayern has demonstrated absolutely nothing to suggest he wants to run this far, especially with the kind of pace pressure he will likely see here. His efforts going long in the Ark Derby, Preakness and Travers were horrible. He got 1 1/8 on two tracks known for carrying speed and he faced no pace pressure in either. He's a total toss for me

Those are there of the top three on the morning line so that alone makes this interesting if we are right about those views. (obviously a big if)

The four horses I like have one thing in common. They have no distance questions whatsoever (in fact the longer the better for all of them).

The four are Cigar Street, Zivo, Tonalist and Majestic Harbor

I am biased toward Zivo because is owned by my good buddy and partner on a bunch of other horses, Tommy Coleman, but personal feelings aside, the horse fits right into the framework of horses without distance limitations and by all accounts he looks and is training super out at Santa Anita so he's a must use for me. If I like Zivo, I have to like Tonalist who beat Zivo last out in the Jockey Gold Cup (albeit with a better trip).

The other two I like not only have unlimited distance capability but also have very big back thorograph figures to run back to and patterns that suggest they could run back to them on Saturday. Cigar Street and Majestic Harbor are the two. While Cigar Street will be something of a wise guy horse come post time because of how well he is training at Santa Anita, Majestic Harbor will be flying under the radar at 20 to 1 or more. And oh, did I mention the big back thorograph figure that Majestic Harbor ran was at Santa Anita?

A big four horse box to close out the weekend in style with Zivo/Tonalist/Cigar Street and Majestic Harbor.

Good luck to all.







Sent from my iPad