Re: My thoughts for Breeders Cup Saturday races (880 Views)
Posted by:
toppled (IP Logged)
Date: October 30, 2014 07:48PM
Here are my thoughts on the Fri & Sat cards for the races I think can be played. No race indicates I feel it's too tough
Friday.
4th: 1 Sawyer's Hill ,6 Enterprising & 11 Ring Weekend can't separate, using in DDs & P3s
5th: 11 Bahamian Squall strong choice fastest horse in race as long as 2nd choice 7 Declassify doesn't find his debut speed.
6th: 4 Commerative,7 War Envoy,1 Wet Sail very close, going all Euro
7th: 1 Goldencents single in all picks.
8th: Bombs Away! Going Lukas' #9 Lady Zuzu. In her last race this filly, 1/2 to Optimizer wanted to run another lap-that's how full of run she was. Afraid of 4 Lady Eli,6 Sivoliere, 2 Osaila & 3 Sunset Glow in that order.
9th: Looking for return to tops for 10 Untapable & 11 Close Hatches in that order
10th (Best Bet) 8 Toledo Eddie Horse for course, 4/5 @ SA, 3/3 @ 7f. If Ranulf was still trained by Baffert, I'd consider but Baffert off & the 8+ month layoff catapults 8 to standout status. His last 2 dirt #s are superior
to this field.
Saturday:
1st: 11 Stormy Liberal-already has a win on this course. 6 Not Enough Eddie-good Turf breeding for 1st turf race, 1 Cool Comfort fastest turf sprint #s going in. I assume 12 Faithful Creek will run in the Juvenile Turf with the scratch of #9in that race, but if he runs here instead he's my top choice.
2nd: 2 horse race 1 Acceptance & 2 Wake Up Nick in that order
3rd: 10 On the Backstreets-3 time winner on this course, 4 Velvet Mesquite 5 time course winner, 6 Richies Party Girl- 1 for one on course, 2/2 at distance.
4th: 11 Top Decile-A little bit of sentiment vote for the filly who saved my Saratoga meet, very weird trip dropping way back & then taking the lead mid-stretch before getting nailed at the wire in Kentucky, with a better ride, her 1st race # puts her in the thick of this. 2 Angela Renee my only other choice here.
6th 3 Stonetastic-ran huge at Saratoga then bounced in Ky, Drew raves from the clockers with local workout on 10/25, looking for return to top. 7 Judy the Beauty-likely favorite has been pointed for this race by Ward, 5 Artemis Agrotera ran as fast a top as the choice, also 2 races back.
8th-I'm eschewing the speed figures on this one. 8 Souper Colossal ran like a wild horse in his 10/27 workout. This horse has never been tested and will be overshadowed by horses with more loftier speed #s, but he's 3/3 including 2 easy stakes wins at Monmouth. The best value on the card because the numbers don't tell the story of this horse's class. 1 Calculator he's been getting beat by American Pharoah but shakes free of him here. In most years he'd be a solid play off his numbers, but he's only 4th fastest going in. 9 Carpe Diem-he could be any kind and his #s were earned on fast tracks. 12 & 13 ran huge in the slop & if they pair are a threat to run 1st and 2nd again.
9th: Going all Euro with 1 Telescope, 4 Brown Panther & 7 Flintshire in that order
11th:All Euro again, 5 Toronado, 9 Anodin & 4 Mustajeeb in that order.
12th: 2 Cigar Street -I liked him before he got to SA to get back to his top which is enough to beat these mostly younger horses. I like him even more now that clockers are raving about his appearance at SA. 6 Shared Belief is the main danger-undefeated horse is the only one I see with the ability to beat Cigar Street.