Re: Jeradi DRF article on the San Antonio (622 Views)
Posted by:
ajkreider (IP Logged)
Date: February 11, 2015 02:21PM
I'm not sure I disagree with the point Jeradi is making, if I understand it.
I know there are figures folks that say, "the number is the number is the number", and I get what they're saying. But if I'm trying to work out whether a horse will be running at the end of 10 furlongs, by looking at their 8 furlong numbers, how they do it matters. Going out in 1:10 and coming home in .26 says something different that going out in 1:12 and coming home in :24.
Further, if I know from recent form that that horses like CC and SB have been able to sustain their speed in a route, the fact that an unusually slow pace results in a 2 instead of their usual 0 isn't evidence of a regression.
Or maybe, looking around the table, I'm the sucker.