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Re: Jeradi DRF article on the San Antonio (537 Views)
Posted by: Rich Curtis (IP Logged)
Date: February 11, 2015 07:29PM

"5 decent horses match up 3 times and the jockeys decide in advance to grab until the 1/4 pole in all 3 races.
Then in the 4th matchup, they all ride 'normally'
What do you think happens to the figure?"

Your wording hints at the problem here. What happens to the figure? That depends on who makes the figure. What happens to the final time? It speeds up.

The problems begin when you start asking yourself whether the makers of final-time figures should try to adjust for these slow paces.

If they do, should they adjust every horse in the race by the same amount? Even though this would mean adjusting frontrunners and deep closers by the same amount? Does doing that seem entirely kosher to you?

And if they do adjust for the slow pace, there is another problem. They might end up having to give very fast figures to horses who, simply put, did NOT run fast over the distance. Rather, they ran fast in a narrow, strategic sense. Whether this will translate to fast in a fairly run race is a different question. To exaggerate for effect, you could take a bunch of Grade 1 horses and throw them into a swimming pool and have them do the backstroke for a mile. Then you can cut the race loose from the dirt races that day and give the swimming horses numbers that fit best with their previous dirt races. This will work beautifully if the swimming horses duplicated their dirt form, but one can imagine the possibility that they didn't.

In other words, this is an extremely complex subject. The details are all full of devils.

Finally, if you're going to be literal-minded and give out very slow figures for slow-paced races, be sure to tell someone like Jerardi to alert people so that they don't take the numbers literally. And of course that was the real point of the article.



Subject Written By Posted
Jeradi DRF article on the San Antonio (925 Views) FrankD. 02/11/2015 01:09PM
Re: Jeradi DRF article on the San Antonio (668 Views) Rich Curtis 02/11/2015 02:01PM
Re: Jeradi DRF article on the San Antonio (622 Views) ajkreider 02/11/2015 02:21PM
Re: Jeradi DRF article on the San Antonio (666 Views) FrankD. 02/11/2015 02:41PM
Re: Jeradi DRF article on the San Antonio (662 Views) Rich Curtis 02/11/2015 03:19PM
Re: Jeradi DRF article on the San Antonio (542 Views) FrankD. 02/11/2015 04:00PM
Re: Jeradi DRF article on the San Antonio (527 Views) Rich Curtis 02/11/2015 04:41PM
Re: Jeradi DRF article on the San Antonio (561 Views) FrankD. 02/11/2015 04:49PM
Re: Jeradi DRF article on the San Antonio (574 Views) Rich Curtis 02/11/2015 05:08PM
Re: Jeradi DRF article on the San Antonio (511 Views) Boscar Obarra 02/11/2015 06:56PM
Re: Jeradi DRF article on the San Antonio (537 Views) Rich Curtis 02/11/2015 07:29PM
Re: Jeradi DRF article on the San Antonio (496 Views) Boscar Obarra 02/11/2015 08:20PM
Re: Jeradi DRF article on the San Antonio (485 Views) kevb 02/11/2015 10:48PM
Re: Jeradi DRF article on the San Antonio (487 Views) miff 02/12/2015 08:22AM
Re: Jeradi DRF article on the San Antonio (431 Views) kevb 02/12/2015 09:11AM
Re: Jeradi DRF article on the San Antonio (472 Views) Rich Curtis 02/12/2015 09:17AM
Re: Jeradi DRF article on the San Antonio (496 Views) miff 02/12/2015 09:42AM
Re: Jeradi DRF article on the San Antonio (446 Views) ruthlessman 02/12/2015 03:30PM
Re: Jeradi DRF article on the San Antonio (476 Views) prist 02/12/2015 04:20PM
Re: Jeradi DRF article on the San Antonio (399 Views) prist 02/12/2015 05:07PM
Re: Jeradi DRF article on the San Antonio (378 Views) Tavasco 02/12/2015 05:50PM
Re: Jeradi DRF article on the San Antonio (509 Views) Rich Curtis 02/12/2015 06:02PM


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