I can't think of another horse I've handicapped that came into the Derby on such a long rest. The Dubai runners have come close I believe. I can't remember their names right now. Bailey was up on one that led for a mile and then backed out. That one was purchased from the Mabees is what I recall. Still, I don't think that horse lost on sparse racing. I think he lost on pedigree or stamina.

I think with this stat the reliance is upon how most Derby winners come into the race. Its alot like that retrospective study they did to first determine what Dosage won the Derby. Its hard to look at these things in hindsight. Its been done before by Needles, it will be done again. Its gonna take the right kind of horse is all. Maybe a web search "needles + kentucky derby" will answer some of your questions. I don't know.

Someone mentioned the concerns. Friends Lake is a nut bag and Read the Footnotes has not performed well this year at 9 marks. That doesn't mean Friends Lake won't be calm or that RTF can't get 10. I really liked RTF, I realized all along I was pushing the breeding envelope and that envelope to my mind is further pushed by the time off. However, how did he handle his last freshening? But if I was confident RTF or Friends Lake was the best horse, I don't think I'd let the layoff bother me.

Theres still alot of time between now and the Derby. We don't know the field. We don't know the post positions. We don't know how fast TCE or Lionheart really ran yet. We don't know what the track conditions are going to be like. Its gonna take some time, for me at least,to hash this out. Come Oaks day, I think we'll all have a better idea.

CtC