Re: american pharoah...CD arrival picture (716 Views)
Posted by:
mjellish (IP Logged)
Date: April 16, 2015 09:55PM
He's already lost weight. He did so after the rebel too, but put it back on quickly. I wouldn't read too much into that photo unless he doesn't come out of his last work well or trains poorly the final week. Remember, they've been playing catch up with him. 6 works in 5 weeks to get ready for Rebel. Then two more works and a race at 1 1/8 over the next 4 weeks.
I wouldn't expect Baffert to do much with him between now and Derby. But this is a good work horse who everyone raves about in the am. So if they aren't raving about how he acts in the am the final week and he doesn't put the weight back on that would be telling, IMO.
Regardless, unless he really wows me between now and then, I'm leaning towards letting him beat me in louisville figuring if he wins there he's likely to bounce in Preakness as heavy odds on favorite and I can hopefully recoup my money then. I know that's pre mature. But it's giving me the confidence to play against him here.
Tough, contentious race. Can't bet them all.