Re: Who is the Wise Guy Horse ??? (533 Views)
Posted by:
Chuckles_the_Clown2 (IP Logged)
Date: April 21, 2004 12:11PM
Yeah they'll be a wiseguy horse, maybe four of them...lol
When I bet the Derby I always think I'm just looking for the best horse. I don't really look at odds in the race regarding the winner. I factor odds in the other exotic spots. If you pick the Derby winner and have the exotics your gonna score. I won it with Strike the Gold at 5-1 is my recollection and the Perfecta was generous. If Captain Bodgit had got his nose up I'd of had a nice Ka Ching. I think I got 5-1 on him to. Those days, you could shop your odds by placing the bet at various tracks. Its all comingled now as far as I know. I've bet low price favorites like 49er and Easy Goer. In hindsight I'm a better handicapper now and I probably wouldn't have bet Easy Goer on that surface that day, but I'd still of taken 49er.
Like I said, I try to win the Derby but if you were looking for a plan of attack to score in the Derby one way is to take horses that ran "competively" in their big prep leading into the Derby.
The number of horses that finished second, third or fourth in them and turn it around Derby Day is significant. From that perspective this year points out the following:
Borrego
Pro Prado
Master David
Imperialism
Song of the Sword
Lionheart
In total my guess is that in aggregate one of these six horses stands upwards of 50-75% chance of winning. (I said it so i'll leave it but I'm revising to 40-60% chance of winning) The divergence is based upon potential improvement off the prior figure) Factor the best of this bunch and you may have your Derby winner.
Post Edited (04-21-04 12:29)