Re: Super Key Poll (694 Views)
Posted by:
Fairmount1 (IP Logged)
Date: April 18, 2015 11:14PM
So the answers are:
American Pharoah
Dortmund
Carpe Diem
Frosted
Upstart
Firing Line
International Star
The ones I'm considering are on that list too. I currently have it narrowed to 3 possible "key" horses ("key" being a single horse to use in all four spots) as works continue, post positions are drawn, TG info is released, etc.
Curious to hear a critique of the following structure of a superfecta. Key is likely not one of the top 4 wagering interests--more likely somewhere between 5th and 10th choice in the win pool. 1, 2, 3 are likely all top 3-4 betting interests although subject to change based on more information. 4-11 are most likely horses to finish 3rd of 4th in my opinion. The actual horses are obviously still not set in stone.
Key with 1, 2, 3, with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
1, 2, 3 with Key with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
1, 2, 3 with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 with key with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
1, 2, 3, with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 with key
$162 per $1 ticket. $648 for all four $1 tickets. As you can see I have a rough idea of which horses I'm thinking but I'm not inflexible on changing my structure as more info emerges.
My question is where do you stop? Not monetarily as that is a personal choice. But rather with attempting to cover yourself on various outcomes involving your horses. For instance, should you play a 5 horse box for another $120 tossing your key and using your next 2 best with the 3 horses used in first and second above? Do you swap the 11 with the 7 in 3rd and 4th on an additional ticket with the key on top with a possibility of two of those seven running 3rd and 4th to have the super for an extra dollar? Should you play the first ticket for a higher amount because it is your strongest opinion even though the amount of coverage is so small compared to the possibilities. This is where I struggle making final decisions with supers no matter if I'm playing dime supers on a 12 horse field at Kee or playing the Derby with 20 for a $1 minimum.
I went back and read Mjellish's posts before and after the Big Brown Derby for some guidance. His approach to that race while quite different b/c of his strong opinion of Big Brown sure makes you think. He discussed strengthening his opinion for one of his secondary (my word) horses over another secondary horse and emphasizing half the field over the other half but using all of them in the bottom to a degree. I'm narrowing it to 11 or 12 in the last category for cost and opinion reasons.
With all of that, just looking for constructive thoughts on how to improve, expand, or modify my structure here.