There are a lot of other factors that affect how an individual horse will run, and all new tops are not created equal-- we had to find something that would give a large enough sample size when analyzing the TRAINER'S tendencies. But what that stat should tell you, in theory, is what the trainer has done historically with horses off tops in a wide range of situations.

I say in theory because this is something new, and we are still taking the bugs out. For example, it should be obvious that Dickinson has had more than 15 situations where a horse is coming off a top-- the program wasn't working properly. We are fixing it, and will find a way to get the updates to everyone who downloaded the probables. There is also a problem with the rolling 3 month stats, and if any of you see
other flaws let us know.

On the larger issue-- we have something coming soon (in theory by the Derby, but I have my doubts) that will give you percentages of new tops, etc., of the pattern of the horse itself-- pair of tops followed by an off race on a May 3yo, for example.



TGJB